Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc7527c90daf06b1fd309695bad4e99d8c4d09c46ba0834ee6eafb32045dcc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 27c | 3,259$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.83 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 3c | 959.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 938.1$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.13 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fca…3487backed Yes | 45c | 750$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 75c | 469.12$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…cfb2backed Yes | 47c | 326.44$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed No | 53c | 280.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 30c | 259$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 59c | 245.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…b53abacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…5473backed Yes | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…ba9bbacked Yes | 45c | 191$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 27c | 184.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 46c | 184.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 35c | 149.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 37c | 123$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 113.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 113.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed No | 22c | 101.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 57c | 96.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 55c | 95.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 15c | 88.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…ed83backed Yes | 46c | 82.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Yes | 26c | 79.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Yes | 25c | 74.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 44c | 65.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 75c | 63.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 23c | 61.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 59.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…da6abacked Yes | 25c | 58.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 39c | 52.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 53c | 50.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 43c | 40.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Yes | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 51c | 29.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…f499backed Yes | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 75c | 26.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…6df4backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…e209backed Yes | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 57c | 21.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 21.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…a581backed Yes | 62c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-29?this page
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?No won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.