Asian League · resolved market
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0fb2127f68c8a60e3bce2b1fcb96d3ea59b5511878f2611f7bbb7f78af8840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 1,866$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.97 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 29c | 857.74$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 29c | 599.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…162fbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 379.57$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 39c | 358.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 32c | 300.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 295.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 68c | 277.93$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 28c | 149.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 20c | 133.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 27c | 77.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 71c | 69.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 63.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 32c | 52.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…da6abacked Yes | 28c | 52.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 40.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 79c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…469fbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 71c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 72c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?this page
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.