Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fce543dd8e7da88b0bcd7e65f95da2b336adf930c746f8ae756bbe7c53e0fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 8,692$6,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 32c | 8,466$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,706.52 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 68c | 2,809$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.28 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 32c | 2,285$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 21c | 2,088$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…610abacked Over | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 1,906$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.98 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 32c | 1,897$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 1,725$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 68c | 1,081$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.01 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 68c | 884.71$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.53 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 26c | 796.82$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 69c | 794.45$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Under | 57c | 495.65$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…7c07backed Over | 46c | 483.8$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 479.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 28c | 423$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 414.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…3348backed Over | 34c | 319.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 20c | 299$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Under | 68c | 270$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 68c | 249.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 68c | 221.5$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 213$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 17c | 199.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 31c | 162.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 68c | 128$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 71.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 69c | 69.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 36c | 50.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 69c | 49.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Under | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Over | 51c | 48.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c285backed Over | 30c | 48.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 68c | 39.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 71c | 33.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 69c | 26.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 67c | 26.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 74c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 69c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.