Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd2a4ac601417a2971696693b1302c6fa0ec6e3aeb86a0346c8b121bbc0cab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 520.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 7c | 443.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 24c | 263.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 234.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 188.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 160.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 18c | 131.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 15c | 130.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 124.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 108.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 80c | 93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 88.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 72.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 67c | 67.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 63.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 20c | 58.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 75c | 53.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 44.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 43c | 38.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 23.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 21.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 80c | 12.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.