Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45146f005e666bf18c3bd7b5ab84c1d6c75c39ce8a1bfe794239cd9690a5b5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 1,864$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.85 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 629.09$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 18c | 418.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 396.63$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 286.89$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 284.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 276$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 248.7$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 38c | 248.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 221.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 209$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 49c | 203.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 194.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 178.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 174$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 138.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 137.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 61c | 137.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 134.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 128.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 62c | 126$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 121.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 111.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 109.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 106.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 93.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 83.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 81.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 79.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 66c | 78.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 74.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 72.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 70.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 68.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 63.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 59.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 50.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked Yes | 34c | 49.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…c1e1backed Yes | 34c | 47.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 70c | 44.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 44.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…6bb9backed No | 67c | 40.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…52b0backed No | 69c | 40.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…5891backed No | 65c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 37.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed No | 67c | 35.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 35.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 35.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe957…0988backed Yes | 34c | 34.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 33.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…eafbbacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…ab03backed No | 68c | 32.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…6ecabacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 75c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 29.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe088…7485backed Yes | 67c | 28.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 28.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 26.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 24.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 22.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 20.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed9…47c0backed No | 64c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 61c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 66c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.