Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b4202b00a1cf9d4955db506d80018999e15ef8ca0d5396b34f8eca550cacb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,326$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 395.42$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 359$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 352.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 319.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 289.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…e15abacked Yes | 16c | 248.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 209.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 14c | 147.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 15c | 127.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 12c | 126.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 12c | 116.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 16c | 101.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 100.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 13c | 100.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…41f3backed Yes | 12c | 98.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 84.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 14c | 82.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed Yes | 15c | 81.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 18c | 75.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 78c | 63.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 21.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.