Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1feab6d84b99556e0eecf8a1ba1499d16ef07920ec3209257cfa53f3e1e3e386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 80c | 11,000$8,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 8,629$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.39 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 79c | 4,000$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,231$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.16 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 20c | 2,644$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.83 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 1,982$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.66 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 4c | 1,902$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 20c | 1,736$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed Yes | 20c | 1,485$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 19c | 1,188$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Yes | 22c | 886.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 6c | 784.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 689.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 4c | 500.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 19c | 452$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…00d9backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 12c | 373$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 16c | 358$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 20c | 133.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e7…5284backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes | 20c | 118.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Yes | 22c | 50.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…caa5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…2d3abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…842bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-13?Yes won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-02-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.