MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x200dafb0932699a0d29904bfa85840d53a140433448bf72cf1e805caf67fbe87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 74c | 3,620$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 24c | 3,506$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 1,510$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.42 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 1,308$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 966.56$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 907.88$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.81 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 633.91$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 315.44$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…646dbacked Texas Rangers | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 238.07$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 223.59$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Texas Rangers | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Texas Rangers | 17c | 165.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 145.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 145.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Texas Rangers | 34c | 142.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Texas Rangers | 23c | 135.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 106$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Chicago White Sox | 78c | 89.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 76.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 57.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 50.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 45.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 43.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 27.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 23.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas RangersChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.