MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bace381af8506138a4f8af1050d41335c9ee88c9907330130890fc683432227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 61c | 6,000$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 2,957$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.28 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 1,582$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.34 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 39c | 1,024$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.64 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 872$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.92 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 62c | 806.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 791.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 600$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Over | 54c | 350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 16c | 236.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 19c | 155.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 110.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 39c | 45.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 78c | 34.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 60c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas RangersChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.