Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x200ef6c1136b6536a5e4472125dca5e4d79c7c00b723e52384255462c503a540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,245 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 18c | 752.14$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 629.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 78c | 574.22$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 438.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 300.13$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 296.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 286.23$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 251.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 17c | 220.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 205.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 205.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 200.65$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 191.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 188.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 180.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 180.31$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 176.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 23c | 143.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 131.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 29c | 127.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…8776backed Yes | 28c | 126.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 119.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 118.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 25c | 111.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 106.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 94.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed Yes | 14c | 85.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 76.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 75.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 74.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 27c | 73.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…84d5backed Yes | 24c | 73.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 26c | 71.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd759…5adfbacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 32c | 63.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 62.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 20c | 58.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 20c | 49.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 27c | 48.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 48.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 73c | 47.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…35cdbacked Yes | 33c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…ac30backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9bf4backed No | 78c | 30.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…3e96backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 71c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 28.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 64c | 27.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 73c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 75c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…8693backed No | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 77c | 16.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…2580backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed No | 73c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.