TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,578 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74f9…93a9backed Yes31c2,720$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1c…eef4backed Yes31c2,655$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6f…079cbacked Yes29c2,625$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1f…6bcbbacked Yes30c2,560$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes47c1,768$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.136852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e92…7489backed No69c1,400$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f1…1603backed No69c1,360$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ec…37b4backed No69c1,320$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…ae64backed No71c1,316$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa8…4672backed No71c1,309$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa725…e8d8backed No70c1,304$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc7…dea0backed No69c1,295$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf670…7822backed No70c1,256$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes23c874.11$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.111,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes2c669.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0445619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No75c522.14$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.155356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes34c423.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.937638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae46…7889backed Yes39c322.91$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes27c275.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.61,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No74c270.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4541460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes12c245.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9732818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes61c244.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9225839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes16c238.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7681234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c191.34$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.461,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11dc…fac5backed Yes50c179.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.573435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes40c175.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No24c169.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8559742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No55c169.18$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.811,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No79c169.08$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No60c167.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No63c163.93$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6532652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes45c155$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2521641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf66…3436backed Yes39c147.62$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582050%10 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+122.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c144.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.631,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c142$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed No73c137.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.041872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c25…87c0backed Yes66c135.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.874146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes41c126.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c124.36$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.41,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c123.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No79c113$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.018,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c109.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.447,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No75c108.1$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9329558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No60c101.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.141,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1936123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c97.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes26c95.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.962231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbf…9047backed Yes12c87.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes30c86.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8810141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No37c85.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.778248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No60c85$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0513748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No68c82.95$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No47c76.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.932157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes20c74.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5d…2f18backed Yes55c72.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes50c72.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2717144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes21c71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.913043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Yes23c64.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.621,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d9…bad0backed Yes31c64.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7822728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…8a87backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c57.05$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.213,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes52c56.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes44c55.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c49.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6318041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0aa…ecd3backed Yes33c44.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes49c43.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4110051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f3…769bbacked No78c41.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.082661.5%16 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes48c39.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.184346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes39c38.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c38.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.624,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…0a2abacked No50c36.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.372166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed No79c34.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.088239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c28…73a4backed No75c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes60c33.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…e422backed Yes47c31.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes75c31.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.534465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed Yes42c29.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed No69c29.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0819449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No79c29.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes55c27.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No76c26.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.345375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.797767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No43c25.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No80c25.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0314071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0253…58d3backed Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e39…8e7abacked No67c23.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.995271.2%37 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No52c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.468048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf8…0e86backed Yes54c21.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No77c20.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.