Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20181f9ffb5391e37df4b179f278b07b3534f934cb3bcb88c6e7556012f92a59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Muchova | 10c | 19,771$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.62 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d7…1252backed Sabalenka | 80c | 12,500$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Muchova | 12c | 7,792$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.97 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Muchova | 24c | 7,128$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Muchova | 20c | 4,390$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Muchova | 0c | 4,088$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Muchova | 10c | 3,684$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.59 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Muchova | 19c | 2,695$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.06 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…c162backed Sabalenka | 80c | 1,327$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Muchova | 20c | 1,229$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.09 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Muchova | 20c | 1,130$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Muchova | 19c | 912.45$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.36 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Muchova | 22c | 893.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Muchova | 20c | 837.4$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…7d13backed Sabalenka | 79c | 824$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Sabalenka | 78c | 790.74$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Muchova | 4c | 787.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Muchova | 8c | 721.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Muchova | 20c | 715$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Muchova | 12c | 624.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Muchova | 7c | 599.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Muchova | 4c | 578.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Muchova | 22c | 550$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sabalenka | 77c | 465.61$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…b668backed Sabalenka | 79c | 445.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 438$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Muchova | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Muchova | 17c | 424.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Muchova | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked Muchova | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Muchova | 20c | 376.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Muchova | 12c | 327.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Muchova | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Muchova | 9c | 299.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Muchova | 21c | 285$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Muchova | 20c | 259.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sabalenka | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Sabalenka | 79c | 240.38$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Muchova | 10c | 238.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…c7a8backed Sabalenka | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Muchova | 18c | 186.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5853…dc28backed Sabalenka | 80c | 182.31$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…df07backed Sabalenka | 80c | 162.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Muchova | 7c | 159.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Muchova | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Muchova | 20c | 137$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Sabalenka | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Muchova | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…994fbacked Sabalenka | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Muchova | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Muchova | 20c | 118.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Muchova | 17c | 114.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Muchova | 11c | 112.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Sabalenka | 80c | 103.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Sabalenka | 78c | 99.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Muchova | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Muchova | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Sabalenka | 80c | 63.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Muchova | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Muchova | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabalenka | 77c | 47.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Sabalenka | 79c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Sabalenka | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Sabalenka | 80c | 21.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed Sabalenka | 80c | 14.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchovathis page
- Sabalenka vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.