MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x201a3cf5798559426ac80a2843f10e77f1872dda2d0c290a08b079a120f09626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 52c | 44,487$23,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,251.83 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 48c | 35,000$16,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,800 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 7,671$3,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.26 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 1,835$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.33 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Over | 60c | 1,735$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.52 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 1,627$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.49 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,447$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.95 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 1,084$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 52c | 887.15$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.83 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 699.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044b…19acbacked Under | 49c | 593.51$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 539.67$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.18 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 67c | 509.25$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.18 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 482.72$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.31 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 447.59$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.06 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 434.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.94 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 314.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.4 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 40c | 155.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 126.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Over | 51c | 114.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 64c | 87.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 79c | 83.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Under | 50c | 56.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 49c | 54.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 51.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 70c | 49.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over | 53c | 47.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 38c | 43.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 43.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…d704backed Over | 52c | 36.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 32c | 34.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 56c | 33.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 57c | 22.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…f4babacked Under | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsYes Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.