Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C or higher on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2020c75502c53c6977296afabac82799a7c13efd94ea75a97346a0a8f33b809b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 78c | 230.75$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 63c | 152.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 33c | 113.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 96.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 62c | 86.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 41c | 86.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 82.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 79.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 37c | 76.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 25c | 73.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 63c | 66.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 63.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed No | 44c | 57.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 55c | 56.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 46c | 54.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 42c | 51.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 38c | 48.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 47.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 47.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 40c | 46.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…cefbbacked Yes | 39c | 41.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 72c | 40.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 38.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 44c | 36.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 63c | 35.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 64c | 30.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…0c24backed Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 38c | 28.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 47c | 28.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 24.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Yes | 65c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 55c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 72c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 64c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C or higher on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.