NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. 49ers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202575221aa2641398b96aae60fcd19b4dfa5fa6f46ee65b35afceceb10c73dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof Panthers, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Panthers | 31c | 69,113$21,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,162.19 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed 49ers | 70c | 38,269$26,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,633.79 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers | 69c | 11,913$8,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,693.04 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed 49ers | 69c | 4,571$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.01 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…955abacked 49ers | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed 49ers | 69c | 2,899$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.55 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed 49ers | 69c | 2,051$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed 49ers | 70c | 1,542$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.52 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked 49ers | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.27 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked 49ers | 70c | 1,355$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.5 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed 49ers | 71c | 1,015$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…4976backed Panthers | 29c | 1,011$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed 49ers | 69c | 784.06$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed 49ers | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed 49ers | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Panthers | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed 49ers | 69c | 335.72$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Panthers | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed 49ers | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 49ers | 69c | 119.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…e52ebacked 49ers | 73c | 101.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…c61bbacked 49ers | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed 49ers | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked 49ers | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed 49ers | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed 49ers | 73c | 34.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked 49ers | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 49ers | 71c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. 49ers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
- Panthers vs. 49ers49ers won
- Panthers vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Panthers vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Under won
- Panthers vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-10.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-7.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-9.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.