NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203511b34fa55670a3d65b460e912652fdd4255258828b266b3da45c84521acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,506 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 44c | 2,805$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.91 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 40c | 2,344$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.58 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…f4b0backed Under | 56c | 2,289$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 56c | 1,495$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.13 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 521$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.76 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf480…5770backed Under | 55c | 483.41$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Over | 20c | 369.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 55c | 223.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 46c | 155.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 130.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 48c | 120.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Under | 56c | 115.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…9f88backed Under | 55c | 112.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked Under | 23c | 106.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +377.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 101.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 45c | 94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 44c | 93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked Under | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Over | 46c | 54.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 53.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…3fc4backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 45.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Under | 34c | 43.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 33.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 31.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…d427backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…015fbacked Under | 49c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 52c | 28.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 27.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 55c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351c…9dffbacked Under | 57c | 20.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. Blue JacketsKings won
- Kings vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.