F1 · resolved market
Leclerc vs. Verstappen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20421dbcd41164103a069e49a1ecd123149667f185bb3378caf7faf341792365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Verstappen of Leclerc, Verstappen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Leclerc | 22c | 1,643$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.49 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…8d31backed Leclerc | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…c9f8backed Verstappen | 78c | 715$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Verstappen | 78c | 708.88$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…a5c0backed Verstappen | 78c | 660$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Verstappen | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…f080backed Verstappen | 78c | 285$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked Leclerc | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Leclerc | 16c | 112.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…9747backed Leclerc | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Verstappen | 76c | 46.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Verstappen | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Verstappen | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leclerc vs. Verstappenthis page
- Alonso vs. Stroll Stroll won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaTsunoda won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercHamilton won
- Hamilton vs. RussellHamilton won
- Leclerc vs. RussellRussell won
- Piastri vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.