F1 · resolved market
Piastri vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdbe489d9e519a39a29f5f6541a03929ece0dea57fdbf909e3ac5f76f112753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norris of Piastri, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa464…b091backed Norris | 35c | 995$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad32…be28backed Piastri | 65c | 695$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Norris | 35c | 683.55$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Piastri | 63c | 397.53$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Norris | 47c | 282.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.97 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…8d31backed Piastri | 65c | 260$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…c88fbacked Piastri | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Piastri | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Piastri | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Norris | 39c | 101.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Piastri | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…50e1backed Norris | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…6faabacked Piastri | 66c | 33.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Piastri | 57c | 30.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Piastri | 64c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Norris | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…fc0fbacked Piastri | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac2…26f6backed Piastri | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…ad03backed Piastri | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Piastri vs. Norris this page
- Alonso vs. Stroll Stroll won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaTsunoda won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercHamilton won
- Hamilton vs. RussellHamilton won
- Leclerc vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenVerstappen won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.