Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207c879ad4c03cbcd37bf2da161df91e565bfbb0f3fe0c70cc817ce1b25646c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…22d9backed Over | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 345 | 68.7%237 W · 108 L | +24.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,482 | 50%741 W · 741 L | +65.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Over | 56c | 499.96$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 45c | 339.93$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Under | 44c | 219.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 45c | 195$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 569 | 49.4%281 W · 288 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 55c | 168.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 1,587 | 43.8%695 W · 892 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 55c | 155.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 343 | 40.5%139 W · 204 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 121.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 2,820 | 41.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 617 | 46.5%287 W · 330 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 44c | 55.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…db7abacked Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Over | 55c | 50.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…51a3backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Under | 44c | 27.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 233 | 30%70 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 53c | 20.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 186 | 48.9%91 W · 95 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed Over | 54c | 18.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5)Dplus KIA won
- Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsDplus KIA won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 WinnerDplus KIA won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.