South American Leagues · resolved market
Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209ab4b406ac75daeda72e3bc2d5a307b9ec9e71ad785b42c833c0594bd41e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 10c | 5,200$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,113$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 50c | 982.98$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.98 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 440.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 431.66$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 351.93$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.41 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 32c | 327.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 259.91$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 47c | 251.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 53c | 199.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 43c | 147.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…ff59backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 31c | 130.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 50c | 110.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 109.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 69c | 108.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 33c | 105.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 105.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…ca5dbacked Over | 59c | 84.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 49c | 66.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 67c | 63.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…65dbbacked Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -64%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…f00bbacked Over | 65c | 60.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 52c | 55.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 47c | 54.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Under | 52c | 49.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Under | 47c | 43.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 42.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3412backed Under | 57c | 42.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 55c | 38.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 57c | 36.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 57c | 34.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 57c | 30.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 50c | 29.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed Under | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…56abbacked Under | 52c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 58c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5this page
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)Atlas FC won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)Atlas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.