South American Leagues · resolved market
Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec124e7f6a0a139cdb33a79e3fdca3235730f2dddb9805917391e408c2da58e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 52c | 6,500$3,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 2,788$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.31 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.98 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Over | 45c | 1,328$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.48 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 75c | 509.35$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2445…ff62backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 80c | 312$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 21c | 279.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.19 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 234$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 222.13$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 20c | 199.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.96 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 77c | 181.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 139.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 128.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 41c | 114.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 112.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 22c | 109.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 50c | 107.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 89.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 39c | 86.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 86.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 28c | 85.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over | 74c | 81.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 14c | 71.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 51c | 68.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 80c | 64.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 26c | 53.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 49.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 46.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 44.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 39c | 40.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 49c | 29.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 75c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5this page
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)Atlas FC won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)Atlas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.