Movies · resolved market
Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d8cabb64b74cccd84be10c412394a74e3c5995c09dbd30c442a9fa5428c5f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6383…1346backed Yes | 42c | 2,143$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…fd87backed Yes | 27c | 613.72$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +266.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 538.76$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.94 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 451.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…5d58backed No | 6c | 320.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 273.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…10bebacked No | 75c | 265.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fee…a676backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed No | 72c | 242.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked No | 63c | 177.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef07…8835backed No | 25c | 160.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 143.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 135.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 133.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 69c | 110.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 34c | 100.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 79c | 98.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…fa07backed No | 20c | 70.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 57.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…fcc8backed Yes | 25c | 56.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…67ccbacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 45.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…5a97backed Yes | 50c | 34.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…0368backed Yes | 32c | 33.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…2a2dbacked No | 44c | 32.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7675…2049backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad0…89d2backed No | 60c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…2646backed No | 50c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…92f8backed Yes | 50c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…b053backed Yes | 80c | 22.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…b3ddbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.