Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20da3b4c89a78a6bff2544e50b77990b161b42576e3ff19c19e80aca2ee791ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 7,666$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.82 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Over | 21c | 4,312$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 759.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…85fbbacked Under | 80c | 745.93$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Over | 49c | 705.3$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.85 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +197%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 12c | 673.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 495.74$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.92 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 79c | 379.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Over | 49c | 324$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 16c | 172.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 21c | 165.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Over | 21c | 154.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Over | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 17c | 140.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 115.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 16c | 110.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 16c | 99.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 15c | 79.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 19c | 62.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 50c | 55.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 80c | 20.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…38b1backed Under | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 79c | 13.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Austin FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Austin FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.