TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over26c5,000$1,294 inLost-$1,294.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf15e…80b5backed Over21c3,421$729 inLost-$728.673928.2%11 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under79c3,163$2,491 inWon+$671.781,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under74c900$666 inWon+$234.54751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under74c869$643 inWon+$225.9452639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under73c592.15$432 inWon+$159.8811854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under74c567.2$420 inWon+$147.471450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under74c486$360 inWon+$126.3671443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under75c423.42$317 inWon+$106.6636247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under75c333$250 inWon+$83.2555750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under75c333$250 inWon+$83.2568550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under75c327.75$246 inWon+$81.9491553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under79c140$110 inWon+$29.8311144.1%49 W · 62 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under74c100$74 inWon+$2617751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under76c80$61 inWon+$19.216456.7%93 W · 71 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under75c69$52 inWon+$17.2510556.2%59 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under79c48$38 inWon+$10.081,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under79c13.42$11 inWon+$2.823,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.