TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Austin FCof Austin FC, Seattle Sounders FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,194 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf40a…ea0abacked Austin FC63c2,335$1,470 inWon+$865.345068%34 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Austin FC35c2,298$805 inWon+$1,492.834639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Austin FC12c1,529$188 inWon+$1,341.1498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Austin FC5c1,378$69 inWon+$1,309.1999340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Austin FC15c907.6$134 inWon+$773.461,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Seattle Sounders FC63c722.83$455 inLost-$455.3825851.2%132 W · 126 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Seattle Sounders FC53c703.48$371 inLost-$370.9423953.6%128 W · 111 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Seattle Sounders FC46c695.6$323 inLost-$323.238760.9%53 W · 34 L+13.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Sounders FC46c481.89$221 inLost-$221.4792346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Seattle Sounders FC45c333$150 inLost-$149.851926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Austin FC20c330$65 inWon+$265.2317137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Seattle Sounders FC29c325.72$95 inLost-$95.4712839.8%51 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Sounders FC72c302.87$219 inLost-$218.681,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Austin FC75c262.33$198 inWon+$64.7780249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…f040backed Seattle Sounders FC10c197.99$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Austin FC72c194$139 inWon+$55.1644350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Austin FC15c174.92$26 inWon+$149.143,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abb…d858backed Seattle Sounders FC21c161.9$34 inLost-$34683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf15e…80b5backed Austin FC17c95$16 inWon+$78.853928.2%11 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ec…81bebacked Seattle Sounders FC20c64.91$13 inLost-$12.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Sounders FC79c31.18$25 inLost-$24.632634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Austin FC66c17$11 inWon+$5.7830444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.