TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x325f…4511backed Under19c6,795$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.6147240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Under46c5,555$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.33531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under11c4,279$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.7287154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.9917740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under21c2,550$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5298945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over54c1,996$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.241,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…0171backed Under58c1,383$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over45c1,318$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.6511633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under15c1,193$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9419645.9%90 W · 106 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over55c1,180$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.463,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked Under16c1,118$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.942147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Over36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Over55c796.08$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.241735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over55c764.03$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.6673438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Under54c744.08$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under14c506.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.811,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23026450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23014652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0366…a001backed Under44c499.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under5c485.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.433865.8%25 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Over50c400.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over80c366.93$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6112667.5%85 W · 41 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Under13c362.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.075350.9%27 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under24c322.73$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3880249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under22c281$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4292346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under17c265.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7799340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under28c260$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.851,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under46c256.72$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0422841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over54c235.42$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2927047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over65c227.88$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7916453%87 W · 77 L+20.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x77f3…f487backed Under45c212.93$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Over74c210$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9416437.2%61 W · 103 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Over51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under34c179.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5914549.7%72 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed Over54c158$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.689742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under55c151.25$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.567659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87f8…b109backed Over76c149.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick70cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Over62c141.24$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.432378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+37.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d90…bcd6backed Under27c128$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.765733.3%19 W · 38 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Under12c128$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.362661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over41c127.91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0653040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over78c127$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3833346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under12c126.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672548%12 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48fb…ced4backed Under14c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under44c116.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.192955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under28c105$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3420252%105 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Under48c103.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over66c100.96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.893767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Under19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over67c99.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Over78c96.91$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.321883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8db…7c68backed Under42c91.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over55c78.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.461,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e3…b615backed Under46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35130%0 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under25c70.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4144350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under19c68.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1368150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over45c66.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4296756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over55c63.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3712058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Under21c62.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.132951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over55c62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.918456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1262…2fc9backed Over80c61.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.66563.1%41 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.810249%50 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over54c59.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5123350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over62c59.61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.722634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over57c53.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0991553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1827344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66bf…07e8backed Over38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Over56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.914349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79d…0289backed Over63c47.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2476…7eeebacked Over63c47.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.442065%13 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over55c46.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.581,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.927058.9%159 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0911…b92dbacked Over49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under43c40.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4730735.2%108 W · 199 L-32.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x014a…9ddbbacked Over58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under35c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0836646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.025326.4%14 W · 39 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712568%17 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d8…3b2bbacked Over58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over49c32.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6516744.3%74 W · 93 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over65c32.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.26560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over55c30.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9112951.2%66 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Over55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.74548.9%22 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over61c22.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba3…97cebacked Over56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.83946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa625…fac6backed Over56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84045%18 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed5…3320backed Over56c19.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over63c18.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.