Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x212633254a34db380a3158c2257752beb7f70e5db6230cf57ae6714384934371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 6c | 199.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 143.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 53c | 126.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 21c | 100.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 99.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 37c | 89.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 43c | 87.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 81.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 76.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 53c | 73.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 72.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 67c | 70.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…c3abbacked Yes | 36c | 63.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 74c | 63.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 59.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed No | 55c | 45.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 44.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 49c | 41.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 61c | 39.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x286b…91d3backed Yes | 75c | 25.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…e4c1backed No | 67c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…9c4fbacked No | 68c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 61c | 19.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.