Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa014aaa5a0fb0663b676902af3fc907cdea5ff0f873b82f59bab78d6ab60d154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,692$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 5c | 281.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…83e9backed Yes | 59c | 194.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 42c | 136.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 125.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 50c | 102.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 58c | 99.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 67c | 94.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 79.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 62.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 57c | 62.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 44c | 56.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4d…c47dbacked Yes | 64c | 55.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 53c | 51.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 30c | 51.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 41c | 51.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 40c | 48.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…2b5ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…73f0backed Yes | 47c | 39.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 34.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 49c | 29.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 27.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…7e81backed No | 57c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 52c | 21.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…a08cbacked Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 61c | 18.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.