Jonathan David: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2130626f9d98f90c2edb8760509634e8c0a54035d1ed32b1dbe70e46cb3ad86b

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,708 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1695…324cbacked Yes	32c	2,250$727 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,522.5	109	31.2%34 W · 75 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No	46c	1,343$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.65	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	65c	1,013$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.6	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x886f…5e20backed Yes	15c	970.31$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.31	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	15c	849$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$721.65	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e0…32dfbacked Yes	16c	625.63$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.63	173	45.1%78 W · 95 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	16c	625.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.25	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb92f…e9f5backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…2766backed Yes	15c	617.53$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.9	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Yes	15c	459.63$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.68	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	148	52.7%78 W · 70 L	+10.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes	55c	249.99$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	102	45.1%46 W · 56 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	43c	236.23$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.17	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	40c	221.76$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.67	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	15c	206.67$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.67	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-10.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda50…2a41backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes	15c	176.93$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.39	93	49.5%46 W · 47 L	+8.5wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.25	167	50.9%85 W · 82 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292a…e42fbacked Yes	16c	125.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.62	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	54c	118.65$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.46	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9236…db6dbacked Yes	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	163	41.1%67 W · 96 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58e…a0b0backed Yes	58c	85.81$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.81	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37b5…b6c8backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	115	26.1%30 W · 85 L	-8.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc932…289bbacked Yes	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.1	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+30%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa68…8d45backed Yes	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No	54c	47.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.71	209	68.4%143 W · 66 L	+21.5wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd04d…2e97backed Yes	34c	44.14$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.14	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc220…5012backed Yes	32c	40$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.25	296	36.1%107 W · 189 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…abe4backed Yes	66c	22.73$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.73	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jonathan David: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event