Jonathan David: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db72c39314573f829d8a6ab0766d9cf26114b284da360d741a54cc39c390704

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,364 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No	53c	5,520$2,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,925.71	343	57.7%198 W · 145 L	+26.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes	47c	2,000$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,065.55	109	31.2%34 W · 75 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	54c	1,449$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.42	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e32…ac88backed Yes	46c	795.51$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.51	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	48c	767.1$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.28	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed No	53c	674.29$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.37	333	50.5%168 W · 165 L	+24.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Yes	45c	564.88$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.9	75	38.7%29 W · 46 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x886f…5e20backed Yes	45c	555.56$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.56	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes	47c	553.19$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.19	167	50.9%85 W · 82 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…fefcbacked Yes	50c	524.87$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.5	83	33.7%28 W · 55 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes	50c	524$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes	47c	508.51$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.51	93	49.5%46 W · 47 L	+8.5wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No	41c	460.48$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.64	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No	55c	455.71$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.37	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-10.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Yes	47c	375$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.75	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b7…c4d2backed No	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	56	64.3%36 W · 20 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	30c	362.3$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.89	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	47c	355$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.64	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	47c	300$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.95	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e4b…0c34backed Yes	46c	300$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes	47c	276.6$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.6	225	51.6%116 W · 109 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	102	45.1%46 W · 56 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x292a…e42fbacked Yes	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No	53c	216$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.48	695	34.8%242 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cb1…3cd0backed Yes	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cc…4c9abacked Yes	46c	204.35$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.35	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes	46c	186.44$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.16	359	54%194 W · 165 L	+20.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	47c	181.74$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.32	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Yes	47c	170.21$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.21	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked No	55c	167.47$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.11	381	55.4%211 W · 170 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda50…2a41backed Yes	47c	165.96$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.96	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	48c	119.52$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.06	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b36…d80cbacked Yes	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f9…c92dbacked Yes	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	70	55.7%39 W · 31 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Yes	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	143	51.7%74 W · 69 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b7…1c12backed Yes	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9236…db6dbacked Yes	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	163	41.1%67 W · 96 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes	46c	89.62$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.4	470	49.4%232 W · 238 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3264…693ebacked Yes	45c	88.89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.89	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9429…fd87backed Yes	47c	85.11$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.11	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b5…b6c8backed Yes	45c	82.17$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.17	115	26.1%30 W · 85 L	-8.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed No	55c	80$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	154	49.4%76 W · 78 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cf…b8e3backed Yes	46c	76.09$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.09	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x111a…acebbacked Yes	47c	63.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…fe73backed Yes	47c	63.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	80	23.8%19 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes	46c	63.04$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.04	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5772…cc77backed Yes	47c	62.62$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.19	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ae…4c80backed Yes	74c	55.73$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.26	148	56.8%84 W · 64 L	+20.7wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x426d…b976backed Yes	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd424…bf7bbacked Yes	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	90	33.3%30 W · 60 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	223	37.2%83 W · 140 L	+20.1wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd875…19cfbacked Yes	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	228	24.6%56 W · 172 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3147…2b50backed Yes	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Yes	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	212	50.9%108 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	25c	51.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	198	62.1%123 W · 75 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…abe4backed Yes	47c	48.04$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.46	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes	47c	46.81$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.81	94	34%32 W · 62 L	-9.9wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15d4…81e1backed Yes	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf2…dfa9backed Yes	47c	42.47$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.51	50	52%26 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fae…0518backed Yes	43c	42$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	54c	41.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5284…6f2bbacked Yes	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2186…271bbacked Yes	47c	39.91$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.15	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc932…289bbacked Yes	51c	37.25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.25	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+30%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e70…c74bbacked No	54c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.63	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	42c	34.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	47c	34.04$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.04	311	47.9%149 W · 162 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0326…3daebacked Yes	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	190	31.6%60 W · 130 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…4cf8backed Yes	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	114	38.6%44 W · 70 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Yes	47c	30.48$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	452	54.6%247 W · 205 L	+13.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc4…a340backed No	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	66cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	55c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a18…edebbacked No	53c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…f043backed Yes	47c	23.4$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	172	44.8%77 W · 95 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…e58fbacked Yes	48c	22.17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	55c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2d…048ebacked No	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00bb…c45fbacked No	56c	18.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jonathan David: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event