Fifa International · resolved market
Jonathan David: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa031e079b993d440afb832da01d399e8a516997a2cb2f33d357da8959ec139b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 50c | 1,081$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.52 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 555.47$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.9 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 4c | 524.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.44 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 50c | 500$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 50c | 348$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 48c | 319.66$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 45c | 312.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b6c8backed Yes | 4c | 252.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 115 | 26.1%30 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 47c | 251.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 58c | 214.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 53c | 189.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…db6dbacked Yes | 51c | 187.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…615fbacked Yes | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes | 35c | 92.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…e42fbacked Yes | 57c | 72.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Yes | 50c | 44.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 31c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 205 | 61%125 W · 80 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…dfa9backed Yes | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 50c | 35.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -9.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb37e…6e64backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…a673backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…6871backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jonathan David: 3+ goalsthis page
- Akram Afif: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ali Ahmed: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ali Ahmed: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ali Ahmed: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ali Ahmed: 2+ shotsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 2+ goalsNo won
- Cyle Larin: 1+ goalsYes won
- Cyle Larin: 2+ goalsNo won
- Cyle Larin: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ismaël Koné: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ismaël Koné: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jonathan David: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jonathan David: 1+ goalsYes won
- Jonathan David: 2+ goalsYes won
- Jonathan David: 3+ shotsYes won
- Jonathan Osorio: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mohammed Muntari: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mohammed Muntari: 1+ shotsNo won
- Owen Goodman: 2+ savesNo won
- Promise David: 1+ goalsNo won
- Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goalsNo won
- Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shotsYes won
- Yusuf Abdurisag: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.