Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2136d219e6f404e82a30d6807dc60f7186454121e289c44f28f9b9e1f10f7dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 25c | 1,127$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.13 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 38c | 658.86$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.73 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 42c | 248.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 228.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 43c | 198.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 189.04$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 184.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 174.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 7c | 171.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 29c | 167.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 163.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 154.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 154.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 152.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 66c | 144.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 142.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 8c | 134.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 106.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 12c | 99.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 56c | 96.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 52c | 96.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 95.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 94.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 72.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 65.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 65.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 56.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 74c | 51.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 49.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 48c | 38.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 36.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 58c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 26.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 79c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 53c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 53c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…feb2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.