Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0badf0b729f7e57f7db6469c73331bd1478ea0e1d92dd46cde0a0d387c7b6531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 2c | 1,647$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 219.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 205.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 66c | 205$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 186.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 152.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 151.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 27c | 140.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 139.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 134.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 118.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 107.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 87.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 85.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 61c | 79.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 71c | 70.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed Yes | 34c | 69.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 36c | 62.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 56.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 56.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 55.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 53.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 51.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 47.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 46.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 26c | 44.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 40.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 35.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 27.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 73c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 78c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.