MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x213fd37b68907397a41293ad51df0d0907ec49d9bd679a8c41ab551332b9b298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 4,145$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.05 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 2,603$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.88 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 2,601$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.47 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 58c | 1,557$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.72 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 40c | 824.74$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.9 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 43c | 690.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.51 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 531.38$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 399$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 64c | 271.38$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 74c | 248.21$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 172$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 55c | 157.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 137.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 68c | 117$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 88.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 61c | 73.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Over | 21c | 50.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Under | 58c | 42.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…985fbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 52c | 28.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 65c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.