MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67cd1f3fb2ad26357d8e2278b106bf61609b20bbcb5a59070d903cd4643236e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 55,555$26,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,665.8 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 19,817$10,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,512.3 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 12,920$6,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,201.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 7,708$4,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,699.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,220$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 964$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 759.1$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.37 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 752.5$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 658$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.25 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 641.95$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.57 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 610$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 297$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 290$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 254.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 224.07$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 193.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 134.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 115.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Cincinnati Reds | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 98.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 80.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 71.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 56.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 51.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 41.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 41.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 31.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 31.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked San Francisco Giants | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 79cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.