Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2155356e635818aa9f43954a4bc1e94a8d771671be3d4d9911c67892f5296dd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Bournemouthof Arsenal FC, AFC Bournemouth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal FC | 8c | 2,273$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 966.32$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Arsenal FC | 7c | 677.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked AFC Bournemouth | 80c | 619.49$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0a…898cbacked AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 234.76$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 223$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arsenal FC | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 135.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 159 | 55.3%88 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 122.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 64.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Arsenal FC | 22c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…eaedbacked AFC Bournemouth | 80c | 44.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.