TailMyPicks
Market

Premier League · resolved market

Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$435,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$453,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,540 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Over57c243,060$139,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,958.2916040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Under43c46,277$19,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,899.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8be…3d54backed Under44c45,258$19,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,913.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under41c35,686$14,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,588.972,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under39c22,216$8,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,564.386,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under31c17,410$5,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,472.034,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe96f…ff4bbacked Under41c11,973$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,862.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under38c11,592$4,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,443.2717557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under42c10,974$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.1840655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under38c10,225$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.6377342.8%331 W · 442 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over77c9,001$6,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.1427955.9%156 W · 123 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under43c8,000$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,44014652.1%76 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under34c7,802$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.142,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under43c6,718$2,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,856.7315255.9%85 W · 67 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under31c6,526$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.94540%18 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under42c6,348$2,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.171,24449.4%615 W · 629 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…d4bfbacked Over69c6,050$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.53764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under43c6,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,58013155%72 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under42c5,834$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.3111652.6%61 W · 55 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under42c5,581$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.9310765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa56d…82e7backed Over58c5,484$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.111361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under15c4,770$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.177342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under42c4,100$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.1739555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Under40c3,856$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.42564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under42c3,337$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.327552.7%145 W · 130 L-1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under42c3,333$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.629352.7%49 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under42c3,333$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.4830057%171 W · 129 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Over62c3,152$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.861118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under39c3,142$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.578345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over75c3,020$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.092466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29014158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Under2c2,181$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under42c2,114$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.8823556.2%132 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under40c2,015$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.1945936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over60c1,910$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.781,93842.5%823 W · 1,115 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over58c1,679$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.431163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under42c1,667$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.1421056.7%119 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under42c1,548$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6505246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under42c1,471$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.6924052.9%127 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under42c1,471$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.6911555.7%64 W · 51 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under2c1,350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under39c1,337$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.514240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Over61c1,285$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.962030%6 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under42c1,195$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.9712561.6%77 W · 48 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under39c1,100$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42920040.5%81 W · 119 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under42c1,090$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.572,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under43c1,039$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.5674644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under38c1,026$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3858445.2%38 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over59c1,015$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.0277336.4%281 W · 492 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under42c1,006$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.583661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3906550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43096443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,24042.2%523 W · 717 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43012157%69 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43017062.4%106 W · 64 L+13.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43014459%85 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under42c967.29$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.3513748.9%67 W · 70 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under43c965.8$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.298065%52 W · 28 L+10.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd710…cf6fbacked Under33c940.31$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under43c900$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38714355.9%80 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over59c823.31$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.6910847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10565.4%3 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+150.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under43c800$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34414354.5%78 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over59c711.44$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.721,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under42c700.79$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.7581053.6%434 W · 376 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04b…3ce0backed Over60c619.56$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under2c614.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15933.2%3 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812757.5%73 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25813855.1%76 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Under50c578.31$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.065255.8%29 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over58c576.11$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.966145.9%28 W · 33 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under42c568.65$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3616757.5%96 W · 71 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd790…a24ebacked Under41c561.07$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.041020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under42c535.69$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9929250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a8…2dedbacked Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21514658.2%85 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21513858.7%81 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under36c495.53$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4419244.8%86 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Over59c445.05$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.643650%18 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under41c443.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0920651.9%107 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over59c439.17$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5856051.4%288 W · 272 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad6…caadbacked Under15c423.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.569660.4%58 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under43c420$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.617959.8%107 W · 72 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under43c420$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.618156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under24c400.66$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.432454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Under42c395.94$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16717048.8%83 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58c…0b79backed Over62c394.03$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.733174.2%23 W · 8 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked Under25c382$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.55650%28 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under43c370$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.116858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3628654.2%155 W · 131 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Under41c366.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.393554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed Over70c353.52$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e12…0ae4backed Under42c345.21$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-73.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over66c339.79$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5315263.2%96 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under28c315.81$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.341,69034.9%589 W · 1,101 L-33.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Over61c315.15$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.914170.7%29 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0f…8a1abacked Over74c310$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+112.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9eb…aee9backed Under43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Under43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12911457%65 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.