Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc935d395c4b838663926987d81c39499b8f08d53d987a3ae9c9ec37e0ddb4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 5,809$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.33 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 12c | 1,107$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 17c | 692.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 629.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Over | 20c | 584$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 69c | 567.51$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 22c | 537.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Under | 80c | 531.05$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 17c | 492.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 75c | 484.73$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 3c | 401$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 368.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 27c | 263$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 192 | 44.8%86 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 74c | 255.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…8272backed Over | 20c | 236.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 13c | 217.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 742 | 56.9%422 W · 320 L | +46.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 33c | 204.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 7c | 148.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…0923backed Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 13c | 121.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 14c | 116.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…3cfbbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 74c | 81.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 17c | 77.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 80c | 62.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 77c | 59.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 21c | 52.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | +47.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 69c | 50.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 80c | 21.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.