Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3666af631e07732b24ff5299547a2bdbe77942b39828b9ea488e1fc5f2bbe53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 10c | 12,924$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.21 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6127backed Over | 79c | 10,128$8,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 7,194$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.78 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 6,185$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.58 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 80c | 2,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…c764backed Over | 76c | 1,455$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Under | 19c | 1,215$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.76 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 18c | 1,130$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 585.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 13c | 524.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 392.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 22c | 216.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f15…50cbbacked Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 18c | 110.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 76c | 106.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 75c | 104.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 76c | 103.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Under | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 80c | 72.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 19c | 69.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 22c | 63.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Over | 76c | 52.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 25c | 49.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Over | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 80c | 35.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Over | 76c | 34.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…7309backed Over | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.