Lol · resolved market
LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2156976e34b53eed05eb9232499df55c868597788cf4c7c5cb2edefdfdb1e135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Solaryof Galions, Solary
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,110 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Galions | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8542…9405backed Galions | 0c | 4,163$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 189 | 10.1%19 W · 170 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Solary | 71c | 4,155$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.22 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Solary | 71c | 2,856$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.76 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Galions | 18c | 1,668$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.24 | 288 | 27.4%79 W · 209 L | -30.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Galions | 19c | 1,061$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Solary | 60c | 834.37$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…d07fbacked Galions | 15c | 700$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 959 | 51.3%492 W · 467 L | +42.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Galions | 15c | 679.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +33.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…8a59backed Galions | 3c | 583.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Solary | 67c | 553.62$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.31 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Solary | 73c | 344.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…575ebacked Galions | 30c | 334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Solary | 74c | 236.39$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…9896backed Galions | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 506 | 46%233 W · 273 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Solary | 65c | 183.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 284 | 58.5%166 W · 118 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Galions | 16c | 127.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Solary | 78c | 115.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Galions | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 431 | 38.1%164 W · 267 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Solary | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,213 | 52.3%635 W · 578 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Solary | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 274 | 55.8%153 W · 121 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Galions | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -13.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…7fa3backed Solary | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 285 | 52.6%150 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Galions | 15c | 75.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…9f75backed Galions | 31c | 74.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Galions | 18c | 62.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Solary | 58c | 59.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1,175 | 47.4%557 W · 618 L | +42.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Galions | 42c | 58.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 372 | 45.2%168 W · 204 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Galions | 24c | 57.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…e165backed Solary | 75c | 53.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Solary | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 386 | 59.8%231 W · 155 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Galions | 27c | 41.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Solary | 79c | 38.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Galions | 41c | 34.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…cc4abacked Solary | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a76bbacked Solary | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - LFL Invitational PlayoffsSolary won
- LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 1 WinnerSolary won
- LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 3 WinnerSolary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.