TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x113d…a76b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
167
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NFL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 57 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT9565.3%62 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 95 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.49
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.44
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Supernova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.03
LoL: VfB eSports vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Seasonbacked VfB eSports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.06
LoL: Zena Esports vs StoneHenge Esports (BO1) - LIT Regular Seasonbacked Zena Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$5.65
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Seasonbacked E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$4.1
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Seasonbacked Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$7.11
LoL: G2 NORD vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Seasonbacked G2 NORD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.7
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked paiN Gaming Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$18.08
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Seasonbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.6
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Seasonbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.5%+$5.67
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.04
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.87
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2backed Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.5
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nongshim Esports Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.02
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.83
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.04
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.44
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$12.06
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Solary - Game 1 Winnerbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$7.08
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$10.93
LoL: Solary vs BIG - Game 2 Winnerbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
LoL: Verdant vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked Verdant · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group Bbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.18
Showing 25 of 95 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT4266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.16
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.1%+$22.74
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.92
Suns vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$7.22
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.89
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.4
Pelicans vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.26
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$36.73
Warriors vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.42
Trail Blazers vs. 76ersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.22
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$14.76
Suns vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$15.48
Suns vs. Pacersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$10.18
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$13.02
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.11
Grizzlies vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$9.51
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.25
Pelicans vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$15.5
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$11.63
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$11.33
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+49.3%+$8.37
Spurs vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$82.14
Celtics vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$61
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.85
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+41.6%+$4.96
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogsbacked Louisiana Tech Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.86
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Wichita State Shockersbacked Tulsa Golden Hurricane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.83
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.75
Cornell Big Red vs. Yale Bulldogsbacked Yale Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.54
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodoresbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyersbacked Dayton Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$6.61
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3.5)backed Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Texas Longhorns vs. Missouri Tigersbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+49.3%+$33.18
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+74.5%+$35.11
All 11 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+81.8%+$13.43
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$36.54
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+86.4%+$13.82
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7.54
All 4 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistanbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+56.6%+$9.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+56.3%+$6.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$12.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.