Us Politics · resolved market
Trump announce run for 3rd term?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2158f77724c533b76dc9544657007d4b63e70eb259c164a12c86b1f24f6f361f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 8,800$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.93 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…c2e1backed Yes | 0c | 8,070$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 6,441$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8f…f939backed Yes | 8c | 6,193$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,920$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…5b40backed Yes | 1c | 3,975$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,835$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…29e6backed Yes | 4c | 3,233$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…f874backed Yes | 8c | 2,934$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,913$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…df18backed Yes | 7c | 2,900$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0a4cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,700$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218c…34c6backed Yes | 7c | 2,699$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…cf85backed Yes | 9c | 2,522$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…cb51backed Yes | 1c | 2,425$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 4c | 2,394$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…217ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,795$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…f0bebacked Yes | 6c | 1,607$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…7072backed Yes | 13c | 1,458$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,333$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…2f96backed Yes | 6c | 1,304$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…8e90backed Yes | 7c | 1,210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…5f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,207$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…82eebacked Yes | 9c | 1,116$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1368…97c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,060$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 5c | 925.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…b5ecbacked Yes | 7c | 875.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 9c | 827$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 777.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 7c | 739.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…4c56backed Yes | 6c | 692.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…93e2backed Yes | 8c | 644.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…2c6abacked Yes | 7c | 548.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7d…156bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 7c | 444$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…a0e9backed Yes | 5c | 427.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes | 8c | 402.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 386$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Yes | 7c | 380$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…e116backed Yes | 6c | 338.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63de…a49bbacked Yes | 7c | 336.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 329.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…dc57backed Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 78c | 260$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…8d3cbacked Yes | 9c | 225.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…00e5backed Yes | 7c | 220.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7511backed Yes | 9c | 216.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14bd…ed9cbacked Yes | 7c | 211.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…fb47backed Yes | 9c | 211.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 6c | 194.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…4e6bbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa63…bbc1backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea17…4346backed Yes | 29c | 57.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.