Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21795285616ce25d055e0851e0e87609895bb1f4692e3fe568bce8017cd528a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 6c | 6,903$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.33 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Yes | 6c | 6,603$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 6c | 3,543$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 6c | 3,160$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 2,501$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Yes | 4c | 2,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…5de2backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9116…fe64backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x921c…05a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,350$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 11c | 1,296$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…36a2backed Yes | 6c | 1,105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…22ebbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Yes | 5c | 780.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Yes | 5c | 640$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…504ebacked Yes | 5c | 493.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…735ebacked Yes | 6c | 434.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 11c | 407$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c39…d10bbacked Yes | 6c | 355.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 6c | 354.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 149 | 30.2%45 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…adcebacked Yes | 8c | 270.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 5c | 253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…7d75backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-20?this page
- Will Atalanta BC vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.