Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2197167010966be420345fa64639dc27d22f612e6b4bfe64d2c41587eba462af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 55c | 1,565$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.78 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 1,355$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.31 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Yes | 49c | 943.02$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 52c | 738.82$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.51 | 164 | 54.3%89 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 533.05$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 52c | 381.65$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.91 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 53c | 308.9$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 46c | 274.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 50c | 253.53$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 49c | 190.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 48c | 181.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 46c | 149.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 46c | 141$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed Yes | 47c | 135.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…8adabacked Yes | 51c | 127.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 104$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 53c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…c25cbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…72f9backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…77dbbacked Yes | 47c | 34.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 21.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 334 | 54.8%183 W · 151 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC leading at halftime?this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Draw at halftime?No won
- Wuhan San Zhen FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.