Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21a3d0d07ef7b5662562a5e3c69703adb243e6bd333e2c27dcc4b4a4599fffdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde4e…7c57backed Yes | 59c | 57,329$33,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,517.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…b518backed Yes | 45c | 40,105$18,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,057.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…918ebacked No | 55c | 40,105$22,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,057.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…40edbacked No | 42c | 29,307$12,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,308.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb6…f761backed No | 40c | 28,022$11,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,208.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 60c | 934.34$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.24 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 75c | 376.3$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 28c | 364.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.11 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 362.03$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.81 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 75c | 359.08$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 51c | 348.86$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 79c | 336.39$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 148.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 72c | 92.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…c1c4backed Yes | 44c | 74.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 57.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 42c | 32.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 75c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on April 18?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on April 18?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on April 18?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on April 18?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.9% on April 18?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.