NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b897b8e37c2522893116a6684ae10d0a08e1ecaaae237a1862ed872f033e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Sharks, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Sharks | 34c | 849.16$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.49 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 693.52$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Sharks | 34c | 564.94$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.86 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 480.39$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.26 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sharks | 32c | 436.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.62 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 79c | 398.94$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 375.22$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 360.67$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.2 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 315.05$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Sharks | 61c | 196.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 184.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Sharks | 32c | 154.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 137.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sharks | 67c | 96.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Sharks | 33c | 87.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sharks | 66c | 60.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Sharks | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…7ef7backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 54.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Sharks | 68c | 49.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Sharks | 65c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sharks | 34c | 38.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sharks | 31c | 32.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 30.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sharks | 70c | 29.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Sharks | 76c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Sharks | 63c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…171ebacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 19.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sharks | 69c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SharksSharks won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.