NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2353cf412e87b5d81e545712b71e9fc9cba4d93b12e64c7d0750b37377528b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Over | 52c | 9,699$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 52c | 8,813$4,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 5,021$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.31 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 50c | 4,008$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 2,363$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.6 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 55c | 1,210$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.57 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 997$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.5 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 791.62$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 614.22$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.4 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 56c | 600$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.62 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 46c | 561.53$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.86 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 479.18$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.85 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 367$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.5 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 50c | 179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Over | 50c | 179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 167.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 165.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 149.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 113.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 51c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Over | 50c | 69.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under | 51c | 61.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 56.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Under | 58c | 51.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Over | 52c | 44.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 49c | 43.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Over | 49c | 35.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 48c | 29.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 23.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d8…f8a5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Under | 51c | 19.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SharksSharks won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.