Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Samuel (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b9aab78532d4d95377a71a64cfca1c4ea08e1eec175cf9262d3220b7cba8bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Samuel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Samuel | 43c | 999.99$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.03 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Minaur | 57c | 529.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.51 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Samuel | 39c | 461.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Minaur | 57c | 449.93$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.47 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Minaur | 60c | 418.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…f951backed Minaur | 62c | 415.88$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Samuel | 48c | 337.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Minaur | 57c | 310.34$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Samuel | 37c | 248.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Samuel | 44c | 181.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Minaur | 50c | 152.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Minaur | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Minaur | 57c | 131.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…082bbacked Minaur | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Samuel | 33c | 75.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Samuel | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Minaur | 60c | 54.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…5bdbbacked Minaur | 62c | 39.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minaur | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Minaur | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Samuel | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Samuel (+2.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby SamuelAlex de Minaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs SamuelMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.