Tennis · resolved market
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb388d5b7f2414ef46265e0945c38e4d7d0e9173d7950f8553bb15269ce114ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex de Minaurof Alex de Minaur, Toby Samuel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Toby Samuel | 9c | 16,216$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.47 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toby Samuel | 6c | 12,482$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.68 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toby Samuel | 6c | 4,116$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Toby Samuel | 6c | 3,334$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.36 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 3,054$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.35 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Toby Samuel | 9c | 3,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toby Samuel | 6c | 2,600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 2,319$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.73 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Toby Samuel | 7c | 2,280$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Toby Samuel | 6c | 2,230$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Toby Samuel | 1c | 2,201$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 2,180$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Toby Samuel | 11c | 2,059$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…8eaebacked Toby Samuel | 7c | 1,714$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ae…c975backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 215 | 37.2%80 W · 135 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…0f3bbacked Toby Samuel | 9c | 1,556$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Toby Samuel | 7c | 1,384$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Toby Samuel | 7c | 1,176$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Toby Samuel | 10c | 1,162$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Toby Samuel | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 23.1%24 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Toby Samuel | 10c | 1,050$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Toby Samuel | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 489 | 41.1%201 W · 288 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Toby Samuel | 2c | 890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…46c8backed Toby Samuel | 11c | 883.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 228 | 21.1%48 W · 180 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 861.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 798.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 538 | 43.5%234 W · 304 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Toby Samuel | 6c | 430.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toby Samuel | 8c | 414.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 396.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 358.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 281$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toby Samuel | 8c | 259.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9922…9003backed Toby Samuel | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…4129backed Toby Samuel | 10c | 194.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…d7cebacked Toby Samuel | 6c | 181.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Toby Samuel | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 329 | 37.1%122 W · 207 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…2cacbacked Toby Samuel | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…d117backed Toby Samuel | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuelthis page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs SamuelMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Samuel (+2.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.