Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223195a317f8abb62f5fd77db9b755c87b34d192724c59a1469f8bcdd7f24163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Up | 13c | 2,495$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 36c | 1,621$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.46 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 38c | 838.65$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.68 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x431e…7c0ebacked Up | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Up | 13c | 484.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Up | 64c | 410.87$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.63 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 62c | 245.95$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Up | 67c | 206.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Up | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Up | 10c | 197$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 9c | 193.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 52c | 153.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Up | 9c | 148.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Up | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Down | 19c | 139.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Up | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 51c | 112.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Down | 41c | 107.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b94…23eabacked Up | 65c | 102.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…e80bbacked Up | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…4956backed Down | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…6941backed Up | 71c | 89.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Up | 20c | 87.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Down | 36c | 75.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…48a7backed Up | 70c | 71.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Down | 29c | 51.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Up | 20c | 50.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…abe7backed Up | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Up | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Down | 28c | 45.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Down | 77c | 43.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…1a32backed Up | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Up | 59c | 34.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.